Fuel costs are expected to rise by at least 65 cents in 2025.
All the major news media are predicting that fuel prices may go up as high 65 cents a gallon in 2025 and maybe as high as 90 cents. The result of those prices is that the average Californian driving a gas-powered car should be prepared to pay an additional $600 to $1,000 annually.
Liane Randolph, chair of the California Air Resources Board.
CTN contacted the California Air Resources Board (CARB) after that agency’s November 8 meeting and asked why the 16-member panel, 12 of whom are appointed by Governor Gavin Newsom, raised gas prices.
Communication Director Lys Mendez replied “Thank you for the opportunity to clarify the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) program for you. The updates approved for the program do not add any type of surcharge to fuel.
“The program sets a declining level of carbon intensity over time for fuel used in California – fuel producers can meet those requirements by limiting the carbon intensity of fuel or buying credits from those that are meeting the requirements,” Mendez said. “The impact on how fuel consumers are impacted by requirements to cut pollution is determined by fuel providers and how they choose to pass down those costs to consumers – it is a business decision they make . . .but there is nothing about this program that sets off any set price increases.”
Mendez added, “CARB is unable to assess how much oil producers will pass through to consumers from compliance costs to pollution reductions. . . .We do, however, know that there are significant costs from inaction on pollution and climate change, from everything to the extreme weather we experience to public health costs from illnesses tied to poor air quality. We also know that Californians can expect to see 40% savings over the next 20 years in fuel costs thanks to the regulation.”
If CARB, an agency of the government of California, does not set prices why are they going up?
CARB sets how much carbon can be released into the atmosphere via the low carbon fuel standards (LCFS). Fuels/cars are rated according to carbon intensity.
Those that rank low on that scale, such as a renewable energies (solar, wind), generate credits that can be sold to companies, such as oil/gas producers.
Fossil fuels (gasoline and diesel) are deficit generators and do not generate credits in the LCFS. In California, producers that don’t meet established benchmarks buy credits from those that do. This system has generated $4 billion in annual private sector investment toward a cleaner transportation sector, according to CARB.
Fuel companies must buy credits from carbon neutral sources and hence the cost of buying those credits raises the cost of fuel.
Not only will private automobiles be affected, but also the trucking industry. That means that the cost of everything that is transported to stores and homes, via truck, will go up in California in 2025.
In a November 8 statement, CARB Chair Liane Randolph, said “Today’s approval increases consumer options beyond petroleum, provides a roadmap for cleaner air, and leverages private sector investment and federal incentives to spur innovation to address climate change and pollution.”
Since, the motto of CARB is “Clearing California Skies for Over 50 Years,” CTN asked Mendez about jet fuels. “Will airlines be asked to buy carbon credits?”
The jet traffic in and out of LAX, Long Beach, John Wayne, San Diego, Van Nuys, Orange County, Hollywood Burbank, Santa Monica Airport, Palm Springs, San Bernardino and the military bases must be producing tons of carbon.
Mendez said that, “The California Air Resources Board recently signed an agreement with major airline companies to increase the use of sustainable aviation fuel.” https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/news/carb-and-nations-leading-airlines-announce-landmark-partnership-sustainable-aviation-future
In that October release, it was noted that airlines will work towards using sustainable aviation fuel, a low-carbon alternative made from renewable biomass and/or waste and ensure that at least 200 million gallons of cost-competitive options are available for use by airlines within California by 2035. Will that include out-of-state and foreign airlines? That was not stated in the release.
One of the largest sources of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are the extensive forest fires that have burned in California and other Western States. CARB’s Mendez was asked if California would “be required to buy carbon credits” for its forest fires.
Mendez said, “here is a great deal of research underway to determine the effects and effective mitigation for the more intense wildfires we see these days. CARB is working with our state, federal and private partners to reduce the impacts of these fires and to reduce their occurrence.
“However, the most effective way to curb the growing intensity of wildfires and the other impacts of climate change is to greatly reduce the use of fossil fuels which continue to feed enormous additional amounts of carbon into the atmosphere on a daily basis,” Mendez said.
As a refresher, carbon is an element that occurs in plant life and all living things. Plants use carbon dioxide in photosynthesis and give off oxygen. Carbon is the fourth most abundant element in the universe. When a fire burns, the black soot is a from of carbon.
According to a study led by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, forest fires in 2023, released about 640 million metric tons of carbon, which is comparable in magnitude to the annual fossil fuel emissions of a large, industrialized nation.
Scientists found that the Canadian fires released more carbon in five months than Russia or Japan emitted from fossil fuels in all of 2022 (about 480 million and 291 million metric tons, respectively).
Scientists said not to worry though because the forest fire carbon will be reabsorbed by Earth’s ecosystems, but the carbon emitted by burning fossil fuels is not offset by a natural process. (The article did not explain why.)
(Editor’s note: in full disclosure, I drive an early model EV, which barely has an 80 mile range. I have a relative that works for an electrical vehicle charging station. I am concerned that there is not the infrastructure to require everyone in Californa to have an electric vehicle by 2035. (Currently there are more than 31 million vehicle registrations.) There are not enough chargers, and too many seem to be down – with the exception of Tesla. How will the trucking industry meet standards, given lack of places to charge when driving across the county? I wonder if international airlines will abide by California standards. I think more needs to be done to prevent large forest fires. And it seems to me that the carb credit is a kind of shakedown.)
Not only the airlines — what about the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach? Both contribute greatly to air pollution in our area.