People are grappling with rebuilding or selling their lots after they’ve been cleared.
By ANTHONY MARGULEAS
We are officially 11 weeks from the fires, and much progress has occurred.
Two Palisades Village eateries have reopened, Palisades Garden Café and Chipotle, so we are slowly getting people back into town.
Colonel Eric Swenson from the ACE (Army Corps of Engineers) said on Saturday, March 22) that 3,031 Palisades property owners have opted in, and 564 (approximately 15%) have opted out of the Army Corps clearing their lot debris compared to the Eaton, which has a much lower opt-out rate. The deadline to opt out and have your private contractor do the work is this Monday, March 31.
There are now 70 ACE crews in the Palisades working on debris removal, and the Corps goal is to increase it to 100-120 crews. They take about two days per parcel to remove the debris. About 100 crews are expected to clear 50 lots per day or 1,500 per month.
At this pace, they could be done with the debris removal after five to six months. Initially it was estimated it would take 18 months. In the Palisades, 576 lots have been cleared (approximately 10% of the Palisades burned homes).
Even more exciting is that two Palisades homeowners have received city approval to rebuild, an incredible step forward to our recovery. The first permit was issued on March 5, 2025.
An additional 72 homeowners have already applied to rebuild in the Palisades. By comparison, the 2018 Woolsey Fire in Malibu/Ventura, only has about 30% of the homes finished after seven years. So far, we are on track to be the fastest fire recovery in history.
In the next few weeks, we will update you on the first homeowner to break ground.
In real estate news, in the past 40 days, we have had 105 burned-down lots on the market. There are 81 active listings, 17 are in escrow and seven are sold. Click here for a live link click here.
The Palisades is still averaging two to three new lot (burned-down home) listings daily, so we expect to have another 100 lots come on in the next 35 days, putting us at 200+ burned-down lots.
Several people have asked me (if they are not planning on rebuilding) if they should put their property on now or wait. We expect close to 1000 burned-down properties to go on the market in the next 8-12 months, likely softening real estate prices, so we suggest coming on the market sooner rather than later. We have only seen two home sales (for homes still standing) since the fires.
Below is a screenshot of the land sales, under contract and pending (which means all contingencies have been removed).
CTN asked Marguleas “Will I make more money by rebuilding something on my lot and selling it maybe in five years? Or should I just take a lot sale? Which would be the better investment?”
He responded that “this is a much stickier and more complex issue and one I am spending most of my time talking to people about. It will depend on each person’s insurance proceeds, the actual cost to build, and what the finished product will ultimately sell for,” he said.
“A concern that has not been discussed is what happens when 300 new constructions come on the market (within a 6 -12 month) window,” Marguleas said. “Are enough buyers willing to pay $6 to $15 million for these brand-new homes?”
He also thought the market might depend on whether ULA gets repealed. L.A. Mayor Karen Bass was investigating the legality of suspending it or whether the measure needed to go back to the voters.
The Measure passed in 2022 and went into effect in 2023. It imposed a 4% tax on property sales above $5 million and a 5.5% tax on those exceeding $10 million, with inflation adjustments. The measure was projected to generate between $600 million and $1.1 billion annually, with proceeds earmarked for homelessness prevention and affordable housing initiatives.
In its first year, which ended June 30, 2024, the tax brought in $296.7 million, less than half of the measure’s lowest revenue projection.
Many of the businesses destroyed in the Fires—such as retail stores, restaurants, and office buildings—could be subject to Measure ULA’s tax when sold.
Marguleas said if ULA is paused, it could be a significant factor in sales, resulting in a 4 to 5.5% cost swing. The downside of pausing ULA, increases the chances of more developers buying lots to develop, he said.
Anthony Marguleas founded Almafi Estates, based in Pacific Palisades.